Climate Change, Monsoon & GLOF

Sadia Kayani

Islamabad: The monsoon is the season of heavy rain, melting glaciers, cloudbursts, lightning, and GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood). The combination of these climatic factors compounds the risk of natural disasters.

Pakistan is among the countries highly prone to natural disasters. However, nature alone cannot be blamed for the disasters and damages in Pakistan. The situation is exacerbated by under capacity in infrastructure and a lack of preparedness by the relevant institutions and communities to anticipate and mitigate the impact of natural disasters.

Although climate change is considered to be the major cause of natural disasters across the globe, rampant corruption, misuse of authority, lack of coordination, poor mismanagement of resources, and the low priority accorded to preparedness, amongst others, are some of the factors that exacerbate the damages caused by natural disasters.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is the “eighth most vulnerable nation to the climate crisis”. As we know, Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to rising global temperatures and its geographic location. Unfortunately, the impact of global warming on Pakistan has been on the radar for at least the past ten years. Yet! The country lacks the capacity and infrastructure to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and the resulting disasters, such as flooding.

Pakistan is home to more than 7,253 glaciers, the highest number other than the polar regions. Most of these glaciers are located in Pakistan’s northern regions; Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP). According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP 2018), over 3,000 lakes have been formed due to melting glaciers in the GB and KP regions of Pakistan. Thirty-three of these lakes are considered at risk of flooding, posing a serious threat to over 7 million people residing downstream.

GLOF is a sudden release of water from a lake fed by glacier melt that has been formed on the side, in front, within, beneath, or on the surface of a glacier. When a glacial lake bursts, its consequences can be catastrophic. Pakistan has neither constructed nor appears to have prioritized the construction of a sufficient number of dams. Hence, flooding and the havoc it causes during the monsoon season are inevitable.

During the monsoon season from June 14 to October 20, 2022, 1,739 people were killed by floods in Pakistan, which caused damage worth Rs 3.2 trillion ($14.9 billion), resulting in a total loss of Rs 3.3 trillion ($15.2 billion) to the national economy.

Seventy-five years of Pakistan’s flood history tell us that approximately 13,312 precious human lives have been lost so far. In Pakistan, flooding is not confined to a particular area; it is experienced throughout the country, including in Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab, KP, and Azad Kashmir.

According to a survey, Pakistan is among the 25 countries in the world that have the lowest human development indicators. Pakistan’s agriculture is heavily dependent on rainwater. Therefore, if the rainy season is delayed, the agriculture on which the majority of its citizens are dependent for their survival and livelihood suffers disproportionately.

On the other hand, in the event of heavy rain and flooding, agriculture and the communities dependent on it suffer. It is painful to note that more than 50 people died of heavy monsoon rains, and significant damage was caused to properties, crops and livestock in just two weeks (June 25 to July 7).

“About 53 deaths have been reported in different rain-related incidents all over Pakistan since the start of the monsoon on June 25,” a National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) official said while adding that 87 people were injured during the same period.

This shows the dilapidated state of affairs with regard to disaster preparedness and response systems in Pakistan. We don’t seem to be learning from our failures and upgrading our abilities and capacities. As a result, many precious lives that could be saved through an appropriate and effective response are not happening. This is not to mention the damage to livestock, property, and the economy.

The relevant authorities fail to take the remedial structural measures (like small dams) for reducing the risk that create hardships that will reduce risks to lives and property.

Dams are the ultimate solution to preventing floods and provide the best water storage facilities to save water for people, agriculture, natural habitats, animals, etc.

This is a fact: Pakistan is the victim of climate change and air pollution which are caused by neighbouring countries like India and China. Even though Pakistan contributes less than one per cent of the global greenhouse gases that warm our planet, its geography makes it disproportionately vulnerable to climate change due to the inefficiency of others in the region.

The melting of the Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan glaciers in Northern Pakistan is due to rising temperatures. This creates glacial lakes that are prone to overflow and surge discharge, posing a catastrophe-proportional risk to communities in their path.

Pakistan alone, with fewer resources, cannot deal with this chaotic and alarming situation which is not entirely of its making. Therefore, world leaders should step up to help and build the institutional capacity of Pakistan to deal with the existing and anticipated disasters.

The international community should help Pakistan devise and implement solutions to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change, especially during the monsoon season, which is a ticking time bomb for Pakistan.