Bumpy Skies: Climate Change Driving Increase in Air Turbulence

AFP/APP

Washington: The seatbelt sign pings on, trays rattle, and drinks slosh in their glasses. For many air travelers, turbulence is an unsettling experience and scientists warn it is likely to intensify in a warming world.

A growing body of research links climate change to rising turbulence, particularly clear-air turbulence (CAT), which is invisible and among the most dangerous forms. Beyond passenger discomfort, turbulence is also the leading cause of in-flight weather accidents, according to official data.

Between 2009 and 2024, there were 207 reported injuries on US commercial flights. Recent high-profile incidents include an Air Europa flight last year that injured 40 passengers and a Singapore Airlines flight in which one person died and dozens were hurt.

“Typically injuries are to unbelted passengers or cabin crew rather than structural damage,” said John Abraham, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of St. Thomas. “Modern aircraft withstand turbulence, so the main risk is occupant injury, not loss of the plane.”

Still, “severe” turbulence — about 1.5 times Earth’s gravitational force — requires post-flight aircraft inspections. Such events occur around 5,000 times annually over the United States, according to Robert Sharman, a senior scientist emeritus at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Turbulence also drives up fuel consumption when pilots are forced to deviate from optimal routes.

Rising risks from warming skies

There are three main types of turbulence: convective (linked to thunderstorms), mountain wave (over ranges), and clear-air turbulence. CAT is invisible, often triggered by jet streams at cruising altitude.

With the tropics warming faster than higher latitudes, jet stream velocity and wind shear are intensifying, fueling more CAT, explained Mohamed Foudad, atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. His research shows turbulence frequency rose 60–155 percent between 1980 and 2021 in regions including the North Atlantic, North America, East Asia, and the Middle East.

A related study in 2023 led by Isabel Smith found that for every degree Celsius of surface warming, moderate CAT in the North Atlantic increases by about 9 percent in winter and 14 percent in summer, narrowing the historical seasonal gap.

Climate change is also expected to fuel stronger storms, adding to turbulence risks. “Turbulence encounters near thunderstorms are a major component of turbulence accidents,” Sharman said.

Mitigation and technology

To reduce risks, researchers are exploring optimized flight routing, improved forecasting, and greater emphasis on passengers keeping seatbelts fastened. Airlines are also testing onboard LIDAR technology, which uses lasers to detect subtle atmospheric changes ahead.

But scientists stress that ultimately, cutting greenhouse gas emissions is critical. Aviation accounts for around 3.5 percent of human-caused warming, and while airlines are exploring cleaner fuels, progress has been described by the International Air Transport Association as “disappointingly slow.”