Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Strike Moon in 2032, Says NASA
News Desk
Islamabad: A once-feared asteroid that previously held the highest recorded risk of impacting Earth has resurfaced in headlines—this time with the Moon in its sights.
NASA has updated its trajectory estimates for asteroid 2024 YR4, revealing a slight increase in the probability of it colliding with the lunar surface on December 22, 2032. The likelihood now stands at 4.3 percent, up from the previously estimated 3.8 percent.
The U.S. space agency emphasized that such revisions are common as more data becomes available. “As data comes in, it is normal for impact probability to evolve,” NASA said in a statement, adding that even if 2024 YR4 were to strike the Moon, it would not alter its orbit.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, 2024 YR4 measures approximately 53 to 67 meters—about the size of a 10-storey building. The asteroid briefly reappeared in May 2025, when NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) captured it using its Near-Infrared Camera. The new data helped refine the asteroid’s predicted path, increasing projection accuracy by nearly 20%, according to a report by Space.com.
The research, led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, follows a dramatic shift in public attention earlier this year. At one point in early 2025, 2024 YR4 carried a 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth, prompting concern among scientists and the public due to its potential to cause regional-scale damage.
NASA simulations indicated that an Earth impact could have affected wide regions across the eastern Pacific, northern South America, parts of Africa, and southern Asia. While the asteroid was not expected to cause tsunamis, an atmospheric airburst over a city could have shattered windows and caused light structural damage.
However, additional observations in February 2025 allowed astronomers to significantly narrow the asteroid’s orbit. On February 24, NASA issued an official “all clear,” confirming that 2024 YR4 poses no threat to Earth.
Now, attention has turned to the Moon. Despite the increased chance of a lunar impact, scientists stress there is no danger to human life.
“A collision with the Moon is not a cause for concern,” said Dr. Pawan Kumar, former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru. “The Moon remains a secure object when it comes to asteroid encounters. Any debris dislodged by such an event would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere before reaching the ground.”
NASA will continue to monitor 2024 YR4 in the lead-up to its 2032 flyby, as astronomers refine models and gather new data.
