India’s Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty: A Strategic Shift or Reactionary Move?
Ishtiaq Ahmed
Islamabad: In the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India was quick to hold Pakistan responsible. What followed was a dramatic and unprecedented response: India announced the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a historic agreement signed in 1960 by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru of India and President Ayub Khan of Pakistan to regulate the distribution and use of river waters between the two countries.
For over six decades, the treaty endured even during two major wars and countless border skirmishes. Notably, water sharing was always kept separate from broader security disputes. So, why did India decide to suspend this longstanding treaty now? Is this a reactive move, or is there a deeper strategic motive?
India is facing a growing and multifaceted water crisis, driven by several factors: Rapid urbanisation and industrial growth, Unsustainable agricultural practices, Widespread water pollution, Climate change and erratic rainfall, Corruption and water mismanagement, and deficient infrastructure, to mention a few pressing concerns
As a result, millions of people across the country lack access to safe water. Pollution from industries, agriculture, and untreated sewage has contaminated major rivers and groundwater sources, making them unfit for human use.
Read More: https://thepenpk.com/restrained-jubilations-as-india-and-pakistan-agree-to-ceasefire/
Agriculture, which consumes the majority of India’s freshwater, continues to rely on inefficient irrigation methods, leading to massive water wastage. Combined with infrastructure gaps such as insufficient reservoirs, outdated canals, and a lack of treatment facilities. The situation is dire. Water shortages are increasingly affecting public health, food production, and industrial growth, and even pose a risk of social unrest. Inevitably, India wants to maximise the use of its water from its two principal rivers and off shoots.
Therefore, against this backdrop the issue of transboundary rivers has increased in importance and magnitude. Although India is home to over 400 rivers, two major transboundary rivers , the Indus and the Brahmaputra play a crucial role in its water security.
The Indus river originates from Mount Kailash in Tibet. It flows northwest through Indian-administered Ladakh, passes through Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan, and continues south to the Arabian Sea near Karachi. This river system is central to the Indus Water Treaty.
The Brahmaputra river on the other hand known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet and Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, it flows from China into India. Like the Indus, its origins lie in Chinese-controlled territory, which adds a complex geopolitical dimension.
India is increasingly concerned about the upstream control China has over these vital rivers. During some recent border clashes, China reportedly blocked the flow of the Galwan River , a move that has raised fears of similar actions affecting other rivers during times of conflict. For India, such scenarios represent serious threats to water security.
India’s apprehensions are not limited to China alone. It is also wary of the deep and growing relationship between Pakistan and China, which includes massive economic investments, military cooperation, and strategic partnerships. China is seen as Pakistan’s closest ally in the region , a superpower counterbalancing India’s own alliances with countries like the United States and Russia.
Read More: https://thepenpk.com/ceasefire-or-countdown-the-fragile-india-pakistan-truce/
In this context, India may be using the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as a leverage, a strategic signal to both Pakistan and China. Given that the treaty was crafted under the supervision of the World Bank and with UN backing, such a move also signals India’s readiness to challenge established norms if its core interests are placed at a risk.
Kashmir is not just a territorial or ideological dispute. It is also a crucial source of water for both India and Pakistan. Many key rivers, including the Indus and its tributaries, originate in the Himalayan region of Kashmir. This makes the territory strategically indispensable for both nations.
For India, control over Kashmir ensures access to vital water resources. For Pakistan, Kashmir is equally essential for the same reason. Some analysts believe that an independent Kashmir could undermine India’s control over these rivers and reduce its leverage in the region.
Conclusion: More Than Meets the Eye
India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty cannot be viewed in isolation. While the official reason may point to retaliation against a terrorist attack, the underlying causes appear to be more strategic and long-term in nature. Faced with a looming water crisis, growing insecurity about upstream control by China, and deepening Pakistan-China ties, India is rethinking its geopolitical tools and water may be one of its most powerful levers.
In this context, the treaty suspension is not merely a response, but potentially a strategic recalibration, one that reflects India’s rising urgency over water scarcity, national security, and regional influence.
Food for thought: Could water — not territory, not religion, not politics — become the central axis of future conflict in South Asia? Was this what was meant by the founding fathers of Pakistan referred as the ‘ Jugular Vein’ of the country?
The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.
The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.
