The Russian-Ukrainian War in Flux

Ishtiaq Ahmed

Islamabad: Readers will recall that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which coincided with Imran Khan’s ill-fated visit to Russia. This visit angered Western allies and eventually led to the downfall of Pakistan’s Prime Minister, from which both he and his PTI party have yet to recover.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has so far resulted in heavy losses for both sides, in terms of both military and civilian casualties. By mid-February 2025, the Ukrainian military had reported over 46,000 deaths and 380,000 wounded.

Russian casualties are estimated at as many as 120,000 deaths and between 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. Obtaining an accurate count of casualties remains challenging, as both sides exaggerate or hide the true numbers for propaganda purposes.

The appetite for prolonging the war appears to be fading on all sides, but neither side seems willing to back down. No doubt, the cost to the Russian economy, compounded by sanctions and a Western boycott, has been severe, despite the optimistic front put on by Putin and his administration.

Similarly, NATO, which has been financing Ukraine, is showing signs of fatigue. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, the USA is becoming increasingly inclined to distance itself from “other people’s wars.” Trump has often criticised NATO, viewing it as an unfair burden on the United States, while simultaneously expressing a greater affinity for Putin’s Russia.

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Against this backdrop, a 30-day ceasefire plan was hatched last week during a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump.

Putin’s response has been cautious. By not outright rejecting Trump’s proposal, Putin appears to be walking a fine line, avoiding a direct refusal of Trump’s peace initiative while also setting stringent conditions that could prolong negotiations.

Putin has expressed support for the idea of a ceasefire but raised “questions” regarding the nature of any potential truce. He outlined several tough conditions for peace that Ukraine and its Western partners are likely to find unacceptable or impossible to meet.

“We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities,” Putin said, but added, “This cessation must lead to long-term peace and address the root causes of this crisis.”

 Putin’s view of the war’s root causes centre around Ukraine’s desire to exist as a sovereign state outside of Russia’s sphere of influence. Ukraine seeks to join NATO and the European Union, a goal that is enshrined in its constitution. President Trump has already expressed scepticism about NATO membership, and Putin has persistently dismissed the idea of Ukraine as an independent state altogether.

Putin also demands that Ukraine cease reinforcing its military and replenishing its weapons supply, effectively halting any further deliveries from the West. He wants assurances that this will be verified.

From the outset of the war, Putin has insisted on the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, a demand that is anathema to Kyiv and its allies. Essentially, Putin is seeking security guarantees in reverse.

Ukrainian President Zelensky described Putin’s response to the peace plan as “manipulative” and called for additional sanctions on Russia. In response, the U.S. imposed further sanctions on Russia’s oil, gas, and banking sectors.

Russian officials indicated that Putin was scheduled to hold talks on the ceasefire with Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, on Thursday evening. Witkoff had arrived in Moscow earlier that day. However, it remains unclear whether the meeting actually took place.

On Friday, Russian state media reported that a plane believed to be carrying Witkoff had departed Moscow. Both Moscow and Washington have refrained from commenting on the issue.

Meanwhile, late Thursday and overnight, both Russia and Ukraine reported new drone attacks against each other.

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The divide is clear: Ukraine wants a two-stage process, a quick ceasefire followed by talks about a long-term settlement. Russia insists that the two must be addressed in a single deal, with all issues decided at once. Each side seems content to argue over their differences.

Ukraine believes it can apply pressure on Russia, portraying it as a reluctant peacemaker buying time. Russia, on the other hand, sees this as an opportunity to raise fundamental concerns about NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s sovereignty.

This situation presents a dilemma for Donald Trump, who has made it clear that he wants a swift resolution, ending the conflict within days. But right now, it seems that Putin is unwilling to cooperate in such a quick manner.

In the meantime, Trump has said he hopes Russia will “do the right thing.” Speaking in the Oval Office during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump told reporters that he had already discussed specifics with Ukraine, including territorial issues and the terms of a final agreement.

As part of the latest round of sanctions, the Trump administration has further restricted access to US payment systems, making it more difficult for other countries to purchase Russian oil.

Many in Europe are concerned that the conditions Putin is setting for peace could undermine the West’s military presence and allow Putin to extend his influence across the continent.

Zelensky has accused Russia of manipulating the situation and seeking to prolong the war, while Trump insists that he is “ready to call” Putin and push for a resolution.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.