Ukraine Conflict: Russia Advances, US Recalibrates

Saleem Raza 

Bradford: The war in Ukraine, once seen as a defining struggle between Russia and the West, is now reaching a decisive moment. With Donald Trump engaging in direct discussions with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, a ceasefire appears imminent.

Moreover, an upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump in Saudi Arabia could formalize the terms of peace, sending shockwaves through Western media.

This shift marks a major failure for US policymakers, who had framed Ukraine’s war as a sacred mission against authoritarianism. Now, with Ukraine facing military collapse and Western resources stretched thin, the same liberal elites who championed the war are left scrambling for a face-saving exit.

Why Did the War Begin?

Ukraine has always held strategic significance for Russia. Throughout history, Western invasions—including those led by Napoleon and Hitler—entered Russia through Ukraine. After the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, Western powers intervened in Russia’s civil war (1918–1921), using Ukraine as a base for anti-Soviet operations. 

During World War II, Ukrainian fascist groups collaborated with the Nazis, though ultimately, the Soviet Union defeated them.

Fast forward to the 1990s: As the Soviet Union collapsed, US Secretary of State James Baker promised Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward” if Moscow withdrew support from Eastern European communist governments.

Gorbachev complied, but the West betrayed its assurances. NATO not only expanded but also dismantled Yugoslavia through military intervention in 1999.

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As Russia descended into chaos under Boris Yeltsin’s US-backed government, Western corporations and Russian oligarchs looted the economy, leading to mass poverty and social collapse. In this context, Vladimir Putin emerged as a stabilizing figure. 

While not an ideological revolutionary, he curbed mafia control, restored state authority, and opposed unchecked Western influence.

Initially, Putin maintained cordial relations with the West, even supporting the U.S. War on Terror post-9/11. However, tensions escalated in 2003 when he opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

By 2004, NATO had expanded further, triggering Russian alarm. In 2008, the U.S. backed Georgia’s anti-Russian government, provoking a brief war that demonstrated Russia’s willingness to use military force to counter NATO expansion.

Then came Ukraine’s 2014 coup, orchestrated by the CIA, which replaced a neutral government with a pro-Western regime. This was the final straw for Putin. He responded by annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

The 2022 Invasion and the Failure of the US Strategy

By 2022, the primary trigger for Russia’s invasion was Ukraine’s proposed NATO membership—a clear red line for Moscow. The West dismissed Putin’s warnings, believing they could repeat the 1980s strategy of using proxy warfare (as in Afghanistan) to weaken Russia.

Washington poured over $66 billion into Ukraine’s military, imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, and mobilized an aggressive media campaign to frame the conflict as a fight for democracy. Biden’s administration believed this was an opportunity to “bleed Russia dry” without direct US involvement.

But the plan backfired.

• Russia’s Economy Withstood Sanctions: Despite Western embargoes, Russia continued selling oil and gas to China, India, and other non-Western markets. Instead of collapsing, its economy adapted, and even saw growth in key sectors.
• Western Military Aid Failed to Turn the Tide: Despite advanced U.S. weapons, Ukraine’s army could not break Russian defenses. Corruption within Ukraine’s government further undermined its war effort.
• Global Realignment Accelerated: China deepened its partnership with Russia, Iran supplied drones, and North Korea provided artillery shells. Western unity began to fracture, with some European countries questioning long-term U.S. leadership.

By early 2024, Ukraine’s battlefield losses became undeniable. Biden’s reelection prospects weakened, and US policymakers realized the war was unwinnable.

Trump’s Strategy: From Russia to China

Trump’s engagement with Putin is not just about ending the Ukraine war—it’s about shifting U.S. focus towards China. Throughout his campaign, Trump argued that instead of wasting resources in Ukraine, the US should prioritize countering China’s rise.

His Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, recently stated that America’s priority is no longer European security but Asian containment, meaning increased military pressure on China. Trump’s strategy is clear: If Russia can be neutralized or even drawn closer to the U.S., Washington can redirect its full force against Beijing.

The Future of US Imperialism and the Emerging World Order

The US is not retreating from global dominance—it is recalibrating its approach. By offloading Ukraine’s financial burden onto Europe (estimated at $3 trillion), the U.S. is shifting focus to Asia, where it plans to build stronger anti-China alliances.

However, Ukraine’s failure reveals broader trends:

• American Power is No Longer Absolute: Unlike in the 1990s, the U.S. can no longer dictate global events unchallenged. Countries like Russia, China, Iran, and even some European states are asserting greater independence.
• Sanctions as a Weapon Are Losing Effectiveness: The Russian economy adapted despite extreme Western sanctions, showing that alternative trade networks are reducing U.S. leverage.
• Western Unity is Fracturing: European leaders are beginning to question the costs of aligning too closely with Washington’s aggressive policies.

What This Means for the Global South

For developing nations, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, this shift presents both risks and opportunities. On one hand, the U.S. pivot to Asia means greater militarization and potential conflict—particularly over Taiwan. On the other hand, the decline of unipolar American dominance allows for alternative alliances, trade routes, and geopolitical strategies.

Pakistan, for instance, should recognize that aligning blindly with U.S. objectives—whether in Ukraine or against China—serves no national interest. The Ukraine conflict proves that resistance against Western hegemony is no longer futile. Just as Russia defied NATO’s expansion and survived, other countries can also challenge unjust US policies.

Ukraine’s war has not only exposed Western weaknesses but also accelerated the rise of a multipolar world. America is shifting its focus from Europe to Asia, setting the stage for a new geopolitical battleground. Yet, if Ukraine’s failed war effort proves anything, it’s that Washington’s ability to dictate global affairs is fading.

As history turns a new page, countries must decide whether to remain shackled to a declining empire or embrace the emerging multipolar reality.

All information and facts provided are the sole responsibility of the writer.

The author, a Pakistan-born creative based in Bradford, UK, is a versatile talent celebrated as a designer, artist, and poet. They hold a postgraduate degree in fashion design from London, showcasing their expertise in both artistic and academic pursuits.