Fragility of Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal

Ishtiaq Ahmed

Bradford: The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect on Sunday, October 19, marked by a significant exchange: Hamas released three hostages, while Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners.

These three hostages are the first of 33 planned releases by Hamas and its allies over the next six weeks. Reports indicate they are in good health and currently receiving care in Tel Aviv.

Readers will recall that at the onset of this current chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which erupted in October 2023, Hamas captured 251 Israeli hostages. Since then, the conflict has inflicted devastating losses, with the Israeli military’s relentless bombardment of Gaza leading to the deaths of over 46,565 Palestinians, injuries to 109,660, and the displacement of millions.

The ceasefire agreement is structured in three phases. In the initial 42-day phase, Hamas has committed to releasing 33 hostages.

Among the 90 Palestinian prisoners freed, Hamas confirmed the release included 69 women and 21 teenage boys, primarily from Ofer prison in Ramallah, located in the occupied West Bank. Their return sparked jubilant celebrations among thousands of supporters.

In the second phase, remaining hostages are to be freed alongside a proportional release of Palestinian prisoners. This phase also includes a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, although the timeline remains subject to negotiations, which are set to commence 16 days into the first phase.

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/israel-palestine-ceasefire-deal-in-making-2/

The third and final phase addresses the exchange of deceased hostages’ and fighters’ bodies, coupled with a reconstruction plan for Gaza. However, the governance framework for the territory remains uncertain.

For Palestinians, the ceasefire is a bittersweet moment. As some cautiously begin to return to Gaza, they face the harsh reality of neighbourhoods reduced to rubble after 15 months of relentless bombardment.

Meanwhile, hundreds of aid trucks lined up to deliver desperately needed supplies to Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, 90% of whom have been displaced, often multiple times.

The World Health Organisation expressed readiness to provide humanitarian assistance during the truce but emphasized the need for “systematic access” across Gaza. Much of the region’s critical infrastructure—including schools, hospitals, shops, and cemeteries—has been destroyed.

The ceasefire’s fragility is underscored by internal opposition within Israel. Hard-line Zionist politicians, notably National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and others have already submitted their resignations in opposition to the ceasefire from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition on the ceasefire’s first day.

While this departure does not collapse the government or directly impact the ceasefire, it signals political turbulence and emboldened factions aiming to undermine the truce. The Jewish Power Party’s platform, focused exclusively on Jewish identity, has little room for inclusivity or peace-oriented solutions.

Read More: https://thepenpk.com/one-year-on-palestine-awaits-for-peace/

The ceasefire deal was brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. However, with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office soon, the future of U.S. policy in the region is unpredictable. Known for his volatile approach and staunch support for Israel’s far-right policies.

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Simultaneously, Trump has also pledged to reduce U.S. involvement in global conflicts while advocating for aggressive stances against Iran and other adversaries. His favourable outlook towards  Russia is a source of frustration for NATO  thus further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Iran-U.S. relations will  play a critical role in shaping the Middle East’s future. Trump’s well-documented antipathy towards Iran raises the potential for heightened hostilities, inevitably drawing Israel and its allies into broader regional conflicts. With Hezbollah already committed to  fighting   Israel, the ceasefire’s durability faces substantial external and internal pressures.

As the dust settles momentarily, the region awaits the unfolding of these complex dynamics, hoping for peace while bracing for the challenges ahead.

The world waits anxiously as this delicate and complex process unfolds.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.