Syria: The Treacherous Road Ahead!

Ishtiaq Ahmed 

Bradford: Bashar al- Assad reaches the safety of Kremlin after the Russian President Vladimir Putin personally decided to grant him and his family asylum.

According to the Russian state media, he and his family were granted asylum on humanitarian grounds.

The deposed dictator unceremoniously fled the country after his government was toppled by the rebellion led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) after two weeks of intense fighting . 

Bashar al-Assad ruled Syria with an Iron fist for 25 years since 2011 amidst allegations of gross human abuses that involved indiscriminate imprisonment of his dissenters and the use of chemical weapons against civilians.

While thousands of prisoners detained by Bashar al-Assad were freed on Sunday, it is believed that thousands more are still imprisoned in underground cells that have not been reached yet . The families of those imprisoned continue to search for any signs of their missing loved ones.

In the Sednaya prison, referred to by the human rights groups as a “human slaughterhouse”, thousands of people are believed to have been detained, tortured or executed during Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011.

Sitting just north of Damascus, it has become the focus for hundreds of families demanding answers about what happened to their relatives.

In the meantime, Israel, US and Turkey have launched airstrikes against sites across the country on the pretext of protecting their interests. Russia is also indicating that it is keen to protect its military bases in the country.

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The entire region is already a ticking time bomb with war in Gaza and Lebanon raging and Israelis with American backing seizing the opportunity to expand into Syria.

It has already taken the control of a previously demilitarised buffer zone in Syria-controlled territory in the Golan Heights and attacked what it said were Assad regime weapons depots with airstrikes.

Gideon Saar, the Israeli foreign minister, said the strikes were to stop arms falling into the hands of those who would seek to harm Israel. 

“That’s why we attacked strategic weapons systems, for example, remaining chemical weapons, or long-range missiles and rockets so that they will not fall in the hands of extremists,” 

The US has struck targets associated with ISIS in central Syria, while Turkey is targeting Washington-backed Kurdish forces.

The UK’s foreign secretary, David Lammy, described Bashar al- Assad a “monster” with “the blood of countless innocents on his hands” , branding his defeat  a “humiliation” for Moscow and Tehran. 

“Assad is the rat of Damascus, fleeing to Moscow with his tail between his legs. How fitting he should end up there,” however, he added that the downfall of Assad brings “no guarantee of peace” and nations have been cautious about HTS and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who now wants to use his formal name Ahmad al-Sharaa.

HTS began as an offshoot of al-Qaeda but cut its ties with the jihadists years ago and has sought to project a more moderate image. 

Lammy said that HTS is still a proscribed terrorist organisation in the UK and the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, said no decision on removing HTS from that list is pending “at all… it is far too early”.

Lammy said: “We will judge HTS by their actions, monitoring closely how they and other parties to this conflict treat all civilians in areas they control”. The foreign secretary added that the group has “offered assurances” to minorities in Syria so far and committed to cooperating with the international community on monitoring chemical weapons.

In the meantime, HTS has announced amnesty to all those conscripted into Assad’s army and issued a statement that they would not tell women how to dress. “It is strictly forbidden to interfere with women’s dress or impose any request related to their clothing or appearance, including requests for modesty.”

Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, has promised that he will cooperate to facilitate a smooth transfer of power.

International leaders have said it is a moment of hope for Syria . However, the country faces many difficult challenges ahead. Achieving unity and consensus in a civil war torn nation at the centre of international power dynamics would be very difficult. 

It has every potential of becoming a battle ground as countries such as Russia, USA. Turkey, and Iran will seek to align and maneuver their interests. Without a clear authority at the centre , the situation would be extremely volatile and fluid.

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There is an added issue of trust in  HTS whether it could be trusted given its notorious past history ? it continues to be classified as a terrorist organisation in many European countries. This is exactly what was hinted by the British Foreign Minister, Lammy. 

Then there is also a challenge of achieving unity at the helm. Getting various dispirited groups that became united to overthrow Bashar al-Assad , would now be demanding their share of the power and positions.

The underlying differences that were set aside for a common cause could re- surface to jeopardise unity and consensus.

There is also a challenge of rebuilding  the country that has suffered a prolonged civil war with its political, economic and social structures in tatters. The rebuilding process would require time, patience and huge resources. These are all in short supply at the present.

One of the key challenges for the new regime would be to manage people’s expectations that have suffered so much under the previous toppled regime. They would be expecting better prospects and a more responsive approach to their grievances from the new government . 

There is also an issue of readjusting those that would be returning to the country. Millions had fled to Turkey to escape the civil war. They are lining up for the return.

 This is also the case with those in European countries, for example, thousands of Syrians were granted asylum in the UK, but the Home Office said decisions on applications would now be paused while events unfold in Damascus.

The UK followed countries including Germany, Austria and Sweden in suspending decisions on Syrian cases. Syrians generated the fifth largest amount of asylum claims to the UK in the year ending September 2024, Home Office statistics showed, behind Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Bangladesh.

The world but more so the people of Syria are anxiously awaiting for the next chapter in the country mercilessly brutalised for over a half century.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.