Trump Rides Global Wave Of Anti-Incumbency
AFP/APP
Washington: Incumbent leaders, once seen as formidable favorites in the battle for re-election, have increasingly found themselves on the defensive, as a global wave of anti-incumbency sentiment sweeps across major democracies.
This year, the United States joined the trend, with former President Donald Trump triumphing over Vice President Kamala Harris, further solidifying a pattern of volatility in the political landscape.
Trump’s win marks the fourth consecutive term in which the U.S. White House will change hands between Republicans and Democrats, a level of political fluctuation not seen since the late 19th century. This pattern reflects a broader global trend, as anti-incumbency fervor has battered both left- and right-wing governments across the world.
In the UK, Labour’s unexpected victory in July ousted years of Conservative rule, while Argentina saw self-professed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei emerge as the winner in November 2023. Similarly, long-dominant incumbent parties suffered losses this year in India, Japan, South Africa, and South Korea.
While Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, a left-wing populist, bucked the trend by securing the presidency in June, the overarching wave of discontent with incumbents has defied historical political expectations.
Despite President Joe Biden’s economic successes such as leading the developed world in economic growth despite high inflation and the absence of U.S. troops in active conflict, Biden’s approval ratings dropped significantly after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, even as the pandemic began to ease. Political scientists had initially predicted a Harris victory, but the anti-incumbency momentum ultimately prevailed.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre linked Biden’s defeat to broader global trends, citing the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fallout it caused worldwide. “What we saw two nights ago was not unusual compared to what we’ve seen from incumbencies around the world,” Jean-Pierre said in a Thursday press briefing.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to bring about a shift in U.S. policy, with potential exits from international climate agreements, a more combative stance toward European allies, and a possible rollback of Democratic domestic initiatives on healthcare and the environment.
The outcome also underscores the challenges of modern politics, with incumbents increasingly unable to take credit for a strong economy or avoid blame for economic hardships. Even in times of global growth, the deep fragmentation of media and increasing partisan polarization have left voters with little patience for sitting presidents.
John V. Kane, a political scientist at New York University, argued that the pandemic and its aftermath transformed incumbency from an asset into a liability. “The past five years have been anything but normal,” Kane said. “Swing voters may not have a clear idea of what policies are needed, but they’re certain they want change.”
Todd Belt of George Washington University pointed to the proliferation of partisan media as a key factor in fueling animosity toward incumbents. “The president has to take credit or blame for everything, even when there are many things beyond their control,” Belt said. “People are paying more attention now, and their patience is shorter.”
As the U.S. shifts into another round of political flux, the future remains uncertain. While incumbents in the U.S. Congress have largely retained power, the volatile economic conditions and social unrest may signal a continued cycle of frequent changes in leadership.
Kane predicted that if “the new normal” for the U.S. economy involves persistent inflation and sluggish growth, swing voters may continue their pattern of alternating between parties every four years, further destabilizing the political landscape.
As Trump prepares for another term, the U.S. appears to be locked in a cycle of disillusionment, with voters hoping that the next president, whether Democrat or Republican, can finally break free from the disruptive forces reshaping the global political order.
