All Eyes on Key Swing States as Harris, Trump Vie for White House

AFP/APP

Washington: US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are hurtling toward their November 5 election showdown, one of the closest contests in modern American history.

In the handful of critical states framing the 2024 race, there is little daylight between the rivals with barely a week before Election Day.

Under the US Constitution, America’s founding fathers established that each of the 50 states would hold its own vote for president. 

Through the complex Electoral College system, each state is assigned a certain number of “electors” based on population. Most states have a winner-take-all system that awards all electors to whoever wins the popular vote.

Candidates need 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, and elections are typically decided in the hotly contested “swing states” that historically alternate between Republican and Democratic candidates.

This year, seven key battlegrounds are within the margin of error and could decide the presidency.

Here’s a look:

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)

Pennsylvania was once reliably Democratic, but it’s now one of the tightest races. Trump won this most populous battleground, with 13 million residents, by 0.7 percentage points in 2016, while Biden claimed it by 1.2 percentage points in 2020.

 Known for its “Rust Belt” cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania has experienced the steady decline of its industrial manufacturing base. 

Trump and Harris have campaigned repeatedly in this eastern state. Trump, who survived an assassination attempt at a July rally in Pennsylvania, is courting the rural white population and warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns.

Meanwhile, Harris is promoting recent infrastructure wins and a $100 billion investment plan in manufacturing, a key issue for state residents.

Georgia (16)

This southeastern state was an election flashpoint at the end of Trump’s first term, and the controversy continues.

Prosecutors in Georgia indicted Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s narrow 2020 victory. 

However, in a boost for Trump, the case is paused until after the election. 

Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992, and demographic changes are likely to benefit Harris, who has been actively courting minority voters.

North Carolina (16)

North Carolina has voted Democratic only once since 1980, yet Harris believes it’s back in play. The population, now over 10 million, is expanding and becoming more diverse, which could favor Democrats.

Complicating matters for Trump, a scandal involving the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate has frustrated party officials, who fear it may hurt Trump in a close race. 

Additionally, the devastation from storm Helene, which recently impacted western North Carolina, may influence voter turnout and sentiment.

Michigan (15)

Trump flipped Michigan, a former Democratic stronghold, on his way to defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden won it back in 2020, supported by unionized workers and a large Black community. 

This time, however, Harris risks losing support from a 200,000-strong Arab-American community due to the Biden administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Arizona (11)

The Grand Canyon state had one of the tightest races in 2020, with Biden winning by only 10,457 votes. Trump hopes concerns over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will help him regain Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico.

Harris visited the border in September, pledging to crack down on migration and to work on reviving last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she claimed Trump had previously undermined for political gain.

Wisconsin (10)

Clinton lost Wisconsin after overlooking it in 2016. However, Biden managed to win the state in 2020, converting a 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000-vote lead for the Democrats.

Trump considers Wisconsin winnable, and his party held its summer national convention there. Although Trump initially led against Biden, Harris’s efforts have made the race a close one.

Nevada (6)

Nevada, with a population of 3.1 million, has not voted Republican since 2004. Encouraged by Trump’s improved standing with Hispanic voters, Republicans are hopeful about flipping the state.

 Trump initially held a strong lead here against Biden, but Harris—promoting economic initiatives to help small businesses and address inflation—has narrowed that gap. 

Nevada’s largest city, Las Vegas, dominated by the hospitality industry, has been a focal point in Harris’s campaign.