Is the Iran-Israel Conflict Headed Towards War?

Asem Mustafa Awan

Islamabad: Iran’s recent missile strike on Israel marks a critical escalation in the volatile Middle East, intensifying fears of a broader regional conflict.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched nearly 200 missiles at key military targets in Israel on Tuesday, responding to Israeli strikes on Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

This action represents a dangerous new phase in the ongoing tensions between Iran, Israel, and their respective allies.

The missile barrage, described by the IRGC as a direct response to the killings of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent Hamas figure, has shaken Israel.

While Israeli and US defence systems intercepted many of the projectiles, several missiles reached their targets in central and southern Israel, causing damage and injuries.

The use of Iran’s new Fatah hypersonic missiles in the strike added a troubling dimension to the conflict. These advanced weapons pose a challenge to Israel’s defence systems, raising concerns about Iran’s growing military capabilities.

According to Iranian state media, 90 percent of the projectiles hit their intended targets, though Israeli sources have downplayed the extent of the damage, emphasizing their success in intercepting most of the missiles.

This strike is not an isolated incident but part of a larger context of escalating violence between Israel, Iran, and their regional proxies.

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Since October 2023, Israel has been embroiled in a war with Hamas in Gaza, resulting in over 41,000 Palestinian deaths mostly women and children.

Hezbollah has also ramped up its rocket attacks on northern Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians. This has led to an intensification of Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, particularly in the capital Beirut, where Hezbollah’s headquarters are located.

The assassination of Nasrallah, who had led Hezbollah for over three decades, has further inflamed tensions and threatens to trigger a wider conflict.

The missile attack is significant because it represents one of the most direct confrontations between Iran and Israel in recent history.

While Hezbollah and Hamas in their fight against Israel, direct military engagement between the two nations has been relatively rare.

In response to the Iran missile attack, Israel has vowed a response and intensified its military operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions and civilian areas alike.

More than 700 people have been killed in Lebanon since the conflict began, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, and thousands more have been displaced.

The situation in Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating, with fears growing that the country could be plunged into another civil war.

The Israeli military has warned that it will continue its strikes on Hezbollah targets as long as the group poses a threat to Israel’s security.

The involvement of the United States in the conflict further complicates the situation. US naval destroyers assisted Israel in intercepting some of the incoming missiles, and American officials have reiterated their support for Israel’s right to defend itself.

However, the Biden administration is also seeking to prevent the conflict from spiralling out of control, as a wider war could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.

The US is reportedly working behind the scenes to de-escalate tensions, but the situation remains precarious.

Inside Israel, the public response to the missile strike has been mixed. In Jerusalem, civilians took shelter in underground bunkers as air raid sirens blared across the city.

While some Israelis expressed anxiety about the potential for further escalation, others remained defiant, determined to continue with their daily lives despite the growing threat.

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In contrast, many Palestinians in East Jerusalem and other occupied territories celebrated the missile strike as a form of resistance against Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

The assassination of Nasrallah has the potential to escalate the conflict even further. Nasrallah was one of the most influential figures in the Middle East, and his death leaves a significant power vacuum within Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for his killing, and there are growing fears that this could lead to an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Such a conflict would likely draw in other regional actors, including Iran and Syria, and could have devastating consequences for the stability of the entire Middle East.

The situation in the region is further complicated by the long-standing animosities between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, which have roots stretching back decades.

The current conflict can be traced to Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,000 people and taking hundreds of hostages.

In response, Israel unleashed a brutal military campaign in Gaza, which has since spread to Lebanon and Syria. Israel strikes have so far killed over 41,000 civilians mostly women and children in Gaza. Hezbollah played a key role in supporting Palestinian resistance against Israeli occupation.

As the violence continues to escalate, the prospect of a broader regional war looms larger. The missile strike on Israel has brought the Middle East to a critical crossroads, with the actions of Iran, Israel, and their respective allies over the coming weeks likely to determine the future course of the conflict.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation are ongoing, but the risk of miscalculation or further provocations remains high.

In the meantime, civilians on both sides of the conflict are bearing the brunt of the violence. Thousands of people have been killed or displaced in Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel, and the humanitarian situation in the region is becoming increasingly dire.

The international community is watching closely, with many leaders calling for an immediate ceasefire to prevent further bloodshed. However, with emotions running high and the stakes higher than ever, the path to peace remains uncertain.

Asem Mustafa Awan has extensive reporting experience with leading national and international media organizations. He has also contributed to reference books such as the Alpine Journal and the American Alpine Journal, among other international publications.