Glacial Melting: The Hidden Climate Crisis Unfolding

Ali Jabir

Islamabad: As the world grapples with global warming and accelerated glacial melting, countries like Pakistan face severe risks from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

These floods pose significant threats to human lives and infrastructure, particularly in hilly regions prone to sudden flash floods.

Pakistan is among the top ten most vulnerable countries to climate change and is home to three major mountain ranges: the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalayas (HKH).

The rapid melting of glaciers in these ranges threatens water availability, which is crucial for the Indus River—a lifeline for agriculture, energy, and water supply.

Dr Arun B Shrestha, a prominent expert on glaciology and Strategic Group Lead for Climate and Environmental Risks at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), has raised alarms about the escalating risks of GLOFs in the HKH region due to rising temperatures.

He stated, “By the end of the present century, GLOF risks in this region could increase fourfold, making the people living in these areas highly vulnerable to floods caused by glacial lake bursts.”

Dr Shrestha underscored the urgent need for a coordinated global response, noting that while the HKH region contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, it disproportionately bears the brunt of climate change impacts.

He emphasized that organizations like ICIMOD are leading dialogues and collaborations at local, national, and transboundary levels to mitigate these risks. “However, the message is clear: regional efforts are insufficient without global recognition and action.”

Despite contributing a nominal amount of carbon emissions, Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change.

While the country has made significant efforts to combat this challenge, it urgently requires international support, as statistics regarding the future effects of global warming are alarming.

Climate Crisis Intensifies Water

Pakistan’s water management is under increasing threat as recent reports reveal a 24 percent decline in snow and ice within the Indus River system, accompanied by a 3 percent increase in glacier melting rates. 

Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik, Chairman of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “These trends pose severe risks of water availability globally, with Pakistan being one of the most vulnerable countries.”

Malik highlighted that the country’s water management infrastructure is ill-equipped to handle the excess water generated during periods of glacial melting, leading to floods that are often followed by prolonged droughts. 

“This situation urgently needs international support, as countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, like Pakistan, bear the burden of global emissions,” he asserted.

Dr. Furrukh Bashir, a hydro-meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), reported that Pakistan is home to over 7,200 glaciers, many of which are retreating rapidly. 

The PMD has identified 36 glacial lakes that are vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), with incidents already occurring in recent years, such as at the Shisper Glacier.

Dr. Bashir credited advancements in technology and community-based early warning systems for mitigating large-scale loss of life during such events. “The PMD continues to study the cryosphere and issue timely GLOF alerts, which are crucial for national disaster management efforts,” he noted.

The risk of GLOFs and other climate-induced disasters is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Pakistan’s geographical vulnerabilities, combined with its reliance on glacial meltwater, create a dual threat of flooding from excessive meltwater and droughts from reduced water storage capacity.

Aisha Humera Chaudhary, Secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change, remarked, “With Pakistan already slipping into water scarcity, the challenge of too much water during floods and too little during droughts will exacerbate due to insufficient storage capacity.”

She also announced the launch of Recharge Pakistan, a program aimed at utilizing wetlands as natural water storage facilities as part of a broader National Climate Change Policy focused on disaster risk reduction, early warning systems, and enhancing community resilience.

 “We are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2040, with 35% of that being conditional on international assistance. However, we need international support to achieve these targets,” she added.

Pakistan’s Water Security 

Pakistan’s economy, agriculture, and overall water security are closely linked to the health of glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region.

With inadequate storage facilities, the country faces severe consequences from erratic water availability—experiencing excessive water during flood seasons and insufficient supply during droughts, potentially crippling various sectors.

In response to these challenges, Ahmed Kamal, Chairman of the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), provided insights into the nation’s efforts to enhance flood management systems following the devastating monsoon floods of 2022.

 “In collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, we plan to establish six regional forecasting centers across the country, focusing on vulnerable areas like Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa,” Kamal stated. 

“These centers will enable more accurate forecasting and quicker responses to mitigate the impacts of floods caused by glacial melting.”

Muhammad Ali from the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA) reported that the authority has identified 16 potential GLOF sites, with major glaciers such as Shisper, Passu, and Hussaini already causing significant issues.

“GBDMA is working to establish flood protection infrastructure, engage communities in disaster preparedness, and issue early warnings,” he added.

Experts emphasize the need for enhanced disaster management, sustainable infrastructure, and a multi-level approach with global cooperation to tackle the climate crisis. This strategy aims to protect vulnerable communities and resources for future generations.