Russia-Ukraine War: Next Chapter?

Ishtiaq Ahmed

Bradford: The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its 936th day, shows no signs of ending. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marks the latest chapter in a conflict that dates to 2014.

Described as the largest act of attrition in Europe since World War II, the war has claimed an estimated 500,000 lives, with casualties rising daily.

While both sides have suffered significant losses, Ukraine has borne the brunt of the devastation as it fights to defend its sovereignty. What began as a conflict between two nations has escalated into a global standoff, pitting Russia against the USA/NATO backing Ukraine.

Despite Russia’s role as the aggressor, the Kremlin has repeatedly accused NATO of launching a “war” against it. The rhetoric from both sides has only intensified, with any prospect of peace seeming more distant than ever.

All indications suggest that both Russia and the West are preparing for a protracted struggle. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued stark warnings to the West, making it clear that if Ukraine is supplied with long-range weapons capable of striking Russian territory, he will view it as NATO directly entering the war.

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“This would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict,” Putin cautioned. His message is clear: any further escalation will force Russia to take drastic measures in response to what it perceives as direct NATO aggression.

NATO, meanwhile, finds itself at a crossroads. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to push for the supply of long-range missiles but Western leaders are wary. The fear of provoking a broader conflict looms large, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Last week’s surprise visit to Washington by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer highlighted this tension.

Starmer’s meeting with US President Joe Biden focused heavily on the war, but any decisions remain shrouded in diplomacy. Both leaders described the talks as “productive”, which in political language often means inconclusive.

Starmer, however, did not mince words before heading to Washington, stating, “Russia started this conflict… Russia can end this conflict straight away.”

His remarks reflect a growing frustration in the West, where the responsibility for ending the war clearly lies with Moscow. Yet, despite the rhetoric, there seems to be little movement towards a resolution.

The situation is further complicated by external players like Iran and North Korea, both of whom have been accused of supplying Russia with weapons. Iranian-made drones, used by Russian forces to target Ukraine, have opened another front in this already complex conflict.

The involvement of these nations raises fresh concerns about how far the war’s reach could extend. As the war grinds on, Western leaders face an excruciating decision: Is the risk of escalating the conflict by supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons greater than the need to help Ukraine defend itself?

This dilemma will define the next phase of the war. One thing, however, is clear: neither side is backing down, and the road to peace seems as distant as ever. The next chapter in this bloody conflict is still unwritten, but it promises to be one of immense global significance.

The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs.

The article is the writer’s opinion, it may or may not adhere to the organization’s editorial policy.