India’s Dilemma: Protecting Ex-PM Hasina or Preserving Regional Alliances

AFP/APP

New Delhi: Four weeks after former premier Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh during a student-led revolution, analysts suggest she has become a significant diplomatic challenge for India. Hasina’s 15-year tenure, marked by rights abuses and opposition crackdowns, ended last month when protesters marched on her palace in Dhaka.

Student leaders in Bangladesh, who spearheaded the uprising, are demanding that she return from India, her biggest benefactor before her ouster, to face trial for the killing of protesters during the revolt. However, India faces a difficult choice: sending the 76-year-old back could damage its relationships with other South Asian neighbors, where it is already competing fiercely with China for influence.

“India is clearly not going to want to extradite her back to Bangladesh,” said Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group, a conflict resolution think-tank. “The message that would send to other leaders in the region who are close to New Delhi would not be a very positive one… that ultimately, India will not protect you,” he added.

A Delicate Balancing Act

India’s regional influence took a hit last year when its preferred presidential candidate in the Maldives lost to a rival who immediately aligned the strategically important tourism destination with Beijing. Now, with Hasina’s toppling, India has lost its closest ally in the region.

Those who suffered under Hasina’s rule in Bangladesh are now openly hostile toward India, criticizing it for the abuses committed by her government.

This hostility has been exacerbated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist rhetoric directed toward Bangladesh’s interim government. While Modi has pledged support for the caretaker administration led by 84-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, he has also repeatedly urged Yunus’s government to protect Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

Hasina’s Awami League was considered more protective of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority than the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Modi, during his annual Independence Day address from the Red Fort, suggested that Bangladeshi Hindus were in danger and later raised the issue with US President Joe Biden.

Although some Bangladeshi Hindus and temples were targeted in the chaos following Hasina’s departure, exaggerated accounts of the violence were reported by pro-government Indian news channels, sparking protests by Hindu activist groups linked to Modi’s party.

Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior BNP leader, accused India of backing Hasina too strongly and now struggling to change course. “The people of Bangladesh want a good relationship with India, but not at the cost of their interests,” said Alamgir, who was among thousands of BNP members arrested during Hasina’s tenure. “India’s attitude is not conducive to building confidence.”

Diplomatic Dilemma

The atmosphere of distrust is so severe that when deadly floods hit both countries in August, some Bangladeshis blamed India for the resulting deaths. Bangladesh’s interim government has not officially raised the issue of Hasina taking refuge in India, but her diplomatic passport has been revoked, preventing her from traveling further.

Although the two countries have an extradition treaty signed in 2013, which allows for her return to face a criminal trial, the treaty includes a clause that permits refusal if the offense is of a “political character.”

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian ambassador to Bangladesh, believes the bilateral relationship is too important for Dhaka to jeopardize by pressing for Hasina’s return. “Any mature government will realize that making an issue out of Hasina staying in India is not going to give them any benefits,” he told AFP.