Hezbollah, Israel Conflict Risk Regional Escalation

Asem Mustafa Awan
Islamabad: The recent escalation between Hezbollah and Israel represents a critical juncture in the broader Middle Eastern conflict landscape, marked by a series of intense military exchanges that have heightened regional tensions.

The hostilities, which intensified with Hezbollah’s large-scale rocket and drone attacks on Israel, and Israel’s subsequent extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah positions, are part of a complex and evolving situation that risks drawing in major international actors such as Iran and the United States.

Exploring the key developments, the broader implications for regional stability, and the potential involvement of external powers the world is urging for peace between the warring sides.

Recent Escalation with Hezbollah launching hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel in one of the most significant clashes in over ten months of ongoing border warfare.
The Hezbollah attack was marked by missiles trailing through the sky as air raid sirens wailed across northern Israel, with smoke rising over southern Lebanon.

Israel responded with a massive military operation, deploying around 100 fighter jets in what it termed preemptive strikes aimed at thwarting a more extensive Hezbollah offensive.

These strikes targeted over 40 Hezbollah launch sites in southern Lebanon, destroying thousands of rocket launch barrels. The immediate impact of these exchanges was relatively contained in terms of casualties, with three deaths reported in Lebanon and none in Israel.

However, the strikes disrupted flights and damaged some infrastructure, including houses and a chicken coop in northern Israel.

Read More:https://thepenpk.com/the-human-cost-of-gaza-conflict/

The situation remained tense but appeared to de-escalate somewhat by mid-morning. Hezbollah indicated that it did not plan further strikes immediately, while Israeli officials emphasized that they did not seek a full-scale war.

The recent escalation must be understood in the context of ongoing regional conflicts. The violence began in parallel with the war in Gaza, which started with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7.

The war in Gaza has been devastating, with over 40,000 women and children killed. This catastrophic humanitarian crisis has generated global concern and calls for a ceasefire.

The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has been closely linked to these broader hostilities. Hezbollah’s recent rocket attack was reportedly a retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut in July.

This assassination was part of a series of escalatory moves, including a missile strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 people, which heightened tensions between the two sides.

The involvement of major external players adds significant complexity to the situation. Hezbollah is backed by Iran, which has played a key role in providing support to the group and other allied militant organizations across the region.

The recent escalation has further strained the already volatile situation involving Iran, Israel, and their respective allies.

Iran’s role is particularly significant given its support for Hezbollah and other groups in the region. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, in Tehran has been widely attributed to Israel, leading to threats of retaliation from Iran.

The killing of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash adds another layer of uncertainty and potential instability within Iran. This internal disruption could influence Iran’s foreign policy and its stance on the conflict.

Houthi in Yemen, who have praised Hezbollah’s attack and renewed their own threats against Israel. The Houthis have been involved in launching missile and drone strikes on Israeli-linked shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

Read More:https://thepenpk.com/irans-retaliation-what-next/

Their statements and actions indicate a willingness to broaden the conflict and increase regional instability.

The United States, as Israel’s main ally, has a critical role in the situation. President Joe Biden and his administration have been closely monitoring the developments, with senior US officials in constant communication with their Israeli counterparts.

The US has reaffirmed its support for Israel’s right to defend itself and has emphasized its commitment to regional stability. The potential for US involvement or support in the event of a broader conflict could have significant implications for the balance of power in the region.

The risk of a regional conflagration is high given the current dynamics. The simultaneous escalation in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict has created a volatile environment where miscalculations or provocations could easily lead to a wider war.

The involvement of Iran with Hezbollah and the Houthis, adds to the complexity and potential for escalation.
A broader regional conflict could have far-reaching consequences. The destabilization of the Middle East could disrupt global oil supplies, as the region is a crucial conduit for international energy transportation.

Additionally, the conflict could prompt further involvement from other regional actors, potentially drawing in additional military and political support from various countries.

Efforts to de-escalate the situation are ongoing, with international mediators, including the United Nations and Egypt, working to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza.

However, the parallel escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border threatens to undermine these efforts and complicate the diplomatic landscape.

Hezbollah and Israel skirmishes at this critical moment in an already tense and volatile region creates a ticking time bomb.

The involvement of major external actors like Iran and the United States, coupled with the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, creates a complex and precarious situation. The potential for a broader regional conflict is real and requires careful management to avoid further escalation.

The actions and responses of both regional and international players will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict and the stability of the Middle East.

The writer has extensive reporting experience with leading national and international media organizations. He has also contributed to reference books such as the Alpine Journal and the American Alpine Journal, among other international publications.