The Cold War 2.0

Mukhtar Karim

As the political shape of the world is rapidly changing, the emergence of another cold war is being heavily discussed amongst political thinkers and writers. For reference, there is always some level of a cold war that gets played out between the competing states and superpowers. However, the distinction has to be made between this and the moves and the counter moves that are of a pernicious nature with long-term global impact.

A panoramic analysis of what is happening amongst the states delineates the fact that the cold war has begun and actions have been accelerated by rival powers.

Speaking of the cold war, any means besides hard military actions, actioned by the states to counter their rivals would be called the cold war. Efforts at diplomatic, economic, social and other levels will be intensified in order to enervate the opposition. It is inherently a condition of persistent tension and disturbance. The foundation of the previous cold war between Russia and the United State was ideological and the current cold war may be more focused on economics.

When it comes to current signs of the cold war, these are very much visible and ensuing turbulence and tensions are already obvious.  Economic war is being waged by the superpowers between China and the United States. A process of extensive propaganda has been reactivated. The western countries are feeding their public anti-China and anti-Russia information. To counter this,  China is spending millions of dollars on western media to influence global public opinion in its favour. International organisations have been brought into this conflict as well. The visit of Putin to Iran and other countries and that of Biden to the Middle East also insinuate diplomatic effort for the formation of the bloc.

The most important sign of the cold war is carving out alliances. In recent years, it has been observed that the Quad is an alliance between Japan, India, and the US and Australia. Merely recently, another alliance has emerged under the cover of AUKUS, a military alliance among three countries. In the previous cold war, the formation of such alliances was one of the strategies to weaken Russia such as SEATO and CENTO. Though the players are different, the game is a replica of the previous cold war.

Another move that implies the resurgence of the cold war is financial means to counter China. Like the Truman doctrine and the famous Marshall plan, western countries once again are united to formulate a package of $600 billion to invest to buy influence. This move has been principally designed to lessen the influence of China in Africa and other underdeveloped countries and counter its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI).

Resurrecting NATO to its desired position too indicates that a new balance or imbalance is being created. On the one hand, it is being revived by increasing engagement with existing members and, on the other hand, new members are being added for expansion and strength. However, the cold war is less about the direct use of the military and more about the use of diplomacy and economic powers to counter and coerce influence.

In recent years, the gears of diplomacy have been shifted by the rival parties. The United States is trying to engage with old partners and find new partners. India is being included in this game. Active diplomacy in the Middle East, Central Asia and Southeast Asia is being rolled out vigorously. China too is involved in buying influence in neighbouring countries by pursuing a policy of non-provocation. Secondly, China is looking at ways to settle disputes with India.

When it comes to the cold war axis, principally, they differ from the previous cold war. Now the eastern side is in the hands of China and Russia is playing a second paddle. On the western side, the same players are coming together to counter the China-led world. In this, European powers appear to be extremely active to shape the counter measures.

What about non-aligned countries?

The current situation suggests that there rarely remains a state that can avoid associating with one or the other bloc. Even though states in the Middle East and Asia and other parts of the world are looking to chart their own path, risk and uncertainty will drag them into this war. In the presence of Iran in the Eastern bloc, Arab countries will be compelled to side with Western powers. Countries neighbouring China depending on existing tensions and disputes will decide which bloc to favour. The economic powers will determine which block may come to have a dominant influence in Africa.

Knowing that the cold war is an unbalancing condition, there will be too many worries for the people. Inflation will grow manifold as globalisation will be restricted. Secondly, an extensive proxy war will be played out between the competing powers. Too much money will be thrown in to support insurgencies. New insurgents with different names will be created. Economic recession may take place. People will be divided based on differing interests and identities. Media will be controlled for propaganda and people will be fed with biased and partial information. Most importantly, international organisations will be weakened and global corporations on the environment and arms will lose out extensively.

However,  there are certain conditions that may hinder or at least delay the successful revival of the cold war scenarios. The developing countries are not necessarily interested in great power games between the superpowers. For example, India, despite its proximity to the west, intends to draw out an independent foreign policy. Pakistan, which has been once a close ally of the west in the previous cold war,  seems to be reluctant to do the same. The formation of Arab NATO and their reluctance to completely toe the line of the US also implies being weary of any form of the stand-off between the superpowers. Another important consideration is the approximate balance in the strengths of the principal rivals. The power is not totally skewed economically, militarily and socially towards any one block.

In a nutshell, it is incontrovertible that preparation for the cold war has been accelerated. Disturbance has already been created. Diplomatic and economic games have visibly begun. Efforts at all levels are invigorated. Apart from a few hurdles, everything is active and robust for cold war 2.0. Pacts, treaties, and alliances are being rapidly drawn out. Maps, designs and policies are very much in motion. Propaganda and disinformation are being inserted into the minds of the public.

The fundamental question remains:  Will the international community be favouring their immediate interests or will they surrender their immediate interests in favour of wider humanity? This question is yet to be answered. However, the attendance to the immediate national interests seems a more palpable scenario.