Helicopter Crash Alters Iran’s Political Landscape
Ishtiaq Ahmed
London: It was a sad day for the Iranian nation. The death of their President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash must have come as a shock.
The convoy of three helicopters was returning from Azerbaijan and the one which was carrying the President and the Foreign Minister crashed.
We recall the recent visit by President Raisi to Pakistan in which the foreign minister also played a key role. The visit signaled a positive turn in Pak-Iran relations which in recent times have not been too cordial.
In this respect, Pakistan has lost two allies that reached out to Pakistan to consolidate and strengthen bilateral relations between the countries.
According to some commentators, the death of President Raisi comes at a time when the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei is reported to be frail and ill. Raisi along with Mojtaba, the son of Khameini, were seen as top contenders to replace the supreme head when the hour arrived.
We should not be too quick to suggest a conspiratorial plot, but questions will be asked. Israel has already declared, “it wasn’t us”.
However, the incident gives rise to some other pertinent questions, for example, why the president and the foreign minister were traveling in the same helicopter?
It was a convoy of three helicopters. The other two made it to their destination. There appear to be no weather-related mitigating factors involved, so what was the cause of the crash?
These and other questions inevitably will be posed over the coming days and weeks.
The death of the president and the foreign minister is a major blow to the Iranian government but more importantly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
President Raisi was his close ally and was perhaps destined to succeed him. He now needs to move quickly given the volatile scenarios in the Middle East. The death of Raisi triggers a constitutional issue and elections within 51 days.
Raisi was a divisive figure, a hardliner conservative who did not sit well with the modernists. He was heavily criticized for his handling of the recent uprisings, upsetting particularly the youth of the nation wanting greater freedom and opportunities.
But for the Supreme Leader and the conservative hardliners, he represented stability and continuity.
Of course, America would be watching closely the developments in Iran which in many ways would dictate its approach to the region.
It would be wanting a more conducive change to its interests with China and Russia also vying to extend their influence and hold.
The helicopter crash may also bring new candidates to the fore, more receptive to change and Iran having a new “ front-line ” role in the Middle East.
The author is a British citizen of Pakistani origin with a keen interest in Pakistani and international affairs. and editorial desk head of the Penpk.com.
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