Water Crisis Looms: Provinces Anticipate 30% Shortage in Early Season

APP

Islamabad: The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Advisory Committee on Tuesday anticipated a 30 percent water shortage for the early Kharif season and a 7 percent shortage for the late Kharif season.

The committee met here with IRSA chairman Abdul Hameed Mengal, Chairman IRSA, and Member IRSA Balochistan in the chair to finalize the Kharif Season 2023 (April–September) water availability criteria.

The meeting was attended by IRSA members, Member (Water) WAPDA, Member (Power) WAPDA, WAPDA Advisors, GM&PD TBD and T4 HPP, Secretaries Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) of Punjab and Sindh and their representatives, representatives of KP and Balochistan, Representative of Provincial Agricultural Department (PAD) of Punjab, Director, Met Department, Director (Opr) / Secretary IRSA, and other senior technical personnel of IRSA.

The Water Accord of 1991 empowered IRSA to determine water availability in the country and provincial share twice a year, once for Kharif season and the other for Rabi season. Rabi season starts on October 1 and ends on March 31, while Kharif starts on April 1 and continues until September 30. 

As per the work of the Advisory Committee, rim station inflow in the Indus Basin System is anticipated to be 99.41 million acre feet (MAF). As per the anticipation, early Kharif inflows will be 23.55 MAF and 75.87 MAF in the late Kharif season.

Of the 99.41 MAF Rim Station inflow, it is anticipated that 12.06 MAF will be stored during the season. As per the anticipation, 4.52 MAF will be stored in early Kharif, while 7.54 MAF will be stored in later Kharif. Similarly, the system losses during the season will be 13.67 MAF; for the earlier Kharif season, it is anticipated that losses will be 5.21 MAF; and for the late Kharif season, they will be 8.46 MAF. The total water availability for the season has been estimated to be 73.69 MAF, which is 13.82 MAF for the earlier season and 59.87 MAF for the later Kharif season. 

Water flows below Kotri barrage are anticipated to be 10.08 MAF in later Kharif, while in early Kharif there will be no downstream release. It has been anticipated that water availability at canal heads will be 63.61 MAF, which is 13.82 MAF for early Kharif and 49.79 MAF for later Kharif seasons. Allocations for KP and Balochistan during the season will be 3.67 MAF, which is 0.63 MAF for early Kharif and 3.04 MAF for later Kharif. Punjab and Sindh will get 59.94 MAF during the season.

For early Kharif, Punjab and Sindh will get 13.19 MAF and 46.75 MAF for later Kharif. Since Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) were exempted from cuts in the share, the shortage of water would be distributed between Sindh and the Punjab.

The Advisory Committee reviewed the Rabi 2023–24 (Oct–Mar) system operation and showed satisfaction with the overall seasonal close of 17 percent shortages against the anticipated shortfall of 15 percent.

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) highlighted that during winter, snowfall in the catchments of Indus and Jhelum was recorded at 34.8 inches against the normal of 50.5 inches, i.e., 31percent less. PMD also forecast higher than normal temperatures during the upcoming Kharif season.

It was agreed that the provinces of Punjab and Sindh would activate their respective discharge observation cells (DOCs) for data reporting at different locations. Punjab SDOs will be stationed at Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri Barrages in Sindh, while 

Sindh SDOs will monitor the discharges at Jinnah H/W, Chashma Barrage, Taunsa H/W, and Panjnad H/W in Punjab. 

The DOCs will share their reports with their respective departments and IRSA on a daily basis. Besides this, joint discharge measurements will also be conducted by neutral experts or departments under the supervision of Member IRSA Punjab, Sindh, and KP in the presence of provincial representatives at different locations during the early Kharif period.

Punjab and Sindh ensured that the DOCs of both provinces would be activated within a fortnight, as it would promote inter-provincial harmony and trust. 

WAPDA briefed the Advisory Committee about the operational constraints of the availability of T3, T4, T5, and LLO, and it was unanimously decided to constitute a committee comprising Member IRSA (Punjab) and Member IRSA (Sindh) along with nominated Chief Engineers from PID Punjab and PID Sindh to physically review and monitor the sites and furnish the report for resolution of the operational constraints.

Mangla authorities briefed the committee about Mangla operational constraints, and after detailed deliberations, Member (Power) WAPDA assured that all irrigation indents would be fulfilled during Kharif 2024.